Potential Tropical Storm/Hurricane

(August 28) This has not been a very active hurricane season.  It is almost September and we are only on Tropical Storm Danny (Hurricanes/Tropical Storms are named in advance, alphabetically.  Danny is the 'D' storm - the 4th of the year.)

Ana, Bill, Claudette and now Danny have avoided the Caribbean but the season seems to be picking up steam.  Currently there is what NOAA describes as a "broad area of low pressure" (NOAA website link here) that has come off of the western coast of Africa and is heading for the Caribbean. 

This is very similar to the path and shape of Tropical Storm Danny.  However, Danny took a long time to form and did not develop strong winds and storms until it passed the Leeward islands in the northeastern Caribbean.

NOAA seems reluctant to warn about this potential storm because it may indeed never grow in strength, saying only that "this system has changed little in the past 24 hours... conditions appear conducive" for development into a Tropical Storm.

We believe that this storm system will become Tropical Storm Erika and eventually Hurricane Erika. This storm will start to affect the eastern Caribbean on Monday.  It seems like we aren't the only one gearing up for Erika.

Based on the paths of Danny and Bill, we believe that Tropical Storm Erika will shoot up the eastern Caribbean coast and probably not greatly affect the Caribbean islands.  But it will probably become a hurricane as it travels through the Bahamas and heads to the eastern coast of the US.

However, stay tuned to NOAA's website. At some point these storms that originate in Africa will head through the Caribbean on route to the gulf.  With these warm waters, they will potentially grow strong, dangerous storms.